1 Getting Started
1.1 What can be forecast?
Forecasts that aren’t forecasts
What can we forecast?
What can we forecast?
What can we forecast?
What can we forecast?
What can we forecast?
What can we forecast?
What can we forecast?
What can we forecast?
What can we forecast?
Which is easiest to forecast?
daily electricity demand in 3 days time
time of sunrise this day next year
Google stock price tomorrow
Google stock price in 6 months time
maximum temperature tomorrow
exchange rate of $US/AUS next week
total sales of drugs in Australian pharmacies next month
timing of next Halley’s comet appearance
Which is easiest to forecast?
time of sunrise this day next year
timing of next Halley’s comet appearance
maximum temperature tomorrow
daily electricity demand in 3 days time
total sales of drugs in Australian pharmacies next month
Google stock price tomorrow
exchange rate of $US/AUS next week
Google stock price in 6 months time
how do we measure “easiest”?
what makes something easy/difficult to forecast?
Forecastability factors
Something is easier to forecast if:
we have a good understanding of the factors that contribute to it
there is lots of data available;
the future is somewhat similar to the past
the forecasts cannot affect the thing we are trying to forecast.